ADOPT: Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool

NLR's Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a vehicle consumer choice and stock model for light- and heavy-duty vehicles.

ADOPT estimates the impact of vehicle technology improvements on U.S. vehicle sales and energy use. It provides consumer choice estimates based on questions such as:

• How much impact do lower battery prices have on electric vehicle sales?
• How quickly would the market adopt a co-optimized engine/fuel combination that achieves a 10% efficiency improvement?
• How do fuel prices impact the electric vehicle/plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales mix?
• How does vehicle lightweighting impact powertrain sales?

Approach

Starting with the majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims to fully represent the market, ADOPT applies numerous inputs—such as technology improvements and fuel prices—over time. ADOPT then estimates sales based on the variable weighted value of key attributes, including vehicle price, fuel cost per mile, acceleration, size, and range. ADOPT also considers passenger-vehicle consumer income level and commercial-vehicle annual mileage as well as regulations and standards that influence sales and average fuel economy.

ADOPT incorporates the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator to apply specified technology improvements to vehicles over time, and to create new model options by combining high-selling powertrains and vehicle platforms and introducing new vehicle technologies.

NLR has extensively validated the tool and its consumer preference trade-offs to ensure confidence in the results.